Kentucky Derby, mALX's Morning Line Options

[mALX]

The 2011 Kentucky Derby gets underway this Saturday May 7, as the drawings for the post positions took place on Wednesday, with overall Favorite Dialed In drawing the eighth position.

Dialed In has been set as the favorite to win the 137th edition of the Run for the Roses on 2011 Kentucky Derby Betting Lines at Bodog Sportsbook, going off at 4/1. He leads the 20-horse field for the $2 million purse just ahead of Uncle Mo, set at 5/1.

Uncle Mo was the favorite for the majority of 2011 prior to a poor performance in New York last month. Still, he remains as one of the top favorites to win the first leg of the Triple Crown. He draws the No.18 post position on the outside.

History favors Dialed In over Uncle Mo purely based on posting positions. 10 times a Kentucky Derby Winner has come from the No.8 post, with the most recent winner Mine That Bird back in 2009. Just once has a horse won from the No.18 post since 1900. That occurred in 1982.

“I think he ought to be able to relax and track the main speed,” said trainer Todd Pletcher. “He’s doing well.”

When informed of the No.18 post position, Pletcher seemed content, “I was okay with that,” he said.

The slated time for the race to begin at Churchill Downs is 6:24 pm Et, with NBC holding coverage beginning at 4 pm Et with the latest updates and information.




mALX's Comments:



2011 Kentucky Derby Post Positions-

1. Archarcharch - a family affair, bad luck #1 post position
2. Brilliant Speed - replacing hopeful Fla Derby winner that broke down, likes the grass (Derby is on dirt)
3. Twice the Appeal - Calvin Borel up, great longshot bet at 20-1
4. Stay Thirsty - 20-1 longshot
5. Decisive Moment - jockey is 52 YO that never rode in the Derby
6. Comma to the Top - second by a neck in the Santa Anita Derby - gelding
7. Pants On Fire - female jockey - will break the male dominated record for the KD if wins.
8. Dialed In - Nick Zito trainer
9. Derby Kitten - duel entry with Twinspired - rookie
10. Twinspired - duel entry with Twinspired - rookie
11. Master of Hounds - never run on dirt, 1 win in 7 starts
12. Santiva - duel entry, green around the gills
13. Mucho Macho Man - sentimental favorite, trainer Kathy Ritvo had heart transplant in 2008
14. Shackleford - second by a head in the Fla Derby
15. Midnight Interlude - just nailed the Santa Anita Derby as a longshot, Bob Baffert trainer
16. Animal Kingdom - 30-1 longshot
17. Soldat - can't come from behind
18. Uncle Mo - backed off the lead (to show) in the Wood Memorial, Unlucky #18 post position
19. Nehro - hot horse? Owner Ahmad Zayat hopes so
20. Watch Me Go - Female trainer - will break the male dominated record for the KD if wins.



Anyone want to post their picks for the Derby here?


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This post has been edited by mALX: May 6 2011, 09:58 PM

[Destri Melarg]

Destri’s uneducated comments:

1. Archarcharch – Running out of the #1 post. Done before the race even begins.
2. Brilliant Speed – Unfortunately doesn’t have it.
3. Twice the Appeal – 20-1 was a gift and a nod to the expertise of Calvin Borel.
4. Stay Thirsty – Maybe the least interesting horse in the race. No Dos Equis for this nag.
5. Decisive Moment – Not so much. Here just to fill out the field.
6. Comma to the Top – Won two races late last year. Patrick Valenzuela is an experienced jockey.
7. Pants on Fire – At 20-1 the one long shot that I would pick. Won the Louisiana Derby in March.
8. Dialed In – If so, the other horses don’t stand a chance. Could still win if not.
9. Derby Kitten – Will run like one.
10. Twinspired – Uninspired.
11. Master of Hounds – A dog! Sorry, couldn't resist.
12. Santiva – Great name! Too bad he runs like his name should be ‘After You.’
13. Mucho Macho Man – Decent horse. Finished third in the race that Pants on Fire won.
14. Shackleford – Jesus Castonon is one of the best jockeys that people don’t know, and he's on a good horse.
15. Midnight Interlude – Baffert has an interesting horse this year. Shocked everyone at Santa Anita. Could do the same at Churchill Downs.
16. Animal Kingdom – Doesn’t have the legs.
17. Soldat – mALX called this one.
18. Uncle Mo – A horse that pulls off the lead has something wrong with it. No surprise that Uncle Mo is a late scratch.
19. Nehro – A legit contender. Has the speed to make a late charge.
20. Watch Me Go – Where, sixth? That’s where the horse finished in its last start.


With Uncle Mo out of the race things seem to be setting up for a Nick Zito/Dialed In win. Of the long shots I think that Pants on Fire has a chance to do something (especially running next to Dialed In). As hard as it might be for me to bet against Calvin Borel, I just don’t think he has the horse to win yet another Derby (but then again, I thought that Mine that Bird was a nag too). The unfortunately named Master of Hounds just continues Garret Gomez’s streak of never finding that right horse. On the subject of names, Santiva just sounds like a racehorse to me. Unfortunately that is where the similarity ends considering that the horse limped to a ninth place finish at the Toyota Blue Grass last month. Shackleford and Midnight Interlude are positioned well at 14 & 15, both have good experienced jockeys (although Castonon aboard Shackleford is making his Derby debut), and both could move to the front early and cause trouble. Nehro is hot and has the speed to stay with Dialed In. Could make for an epic finish if the two horses are locked nose to nose at the turn for home.

This post has been edited by Destri Melarg: May 6 2011, 08:46 PM