Kentucky Derby, mALX's Morning Line Options

[mALX]

The 2011 Kentucky Derby gets underway this Saturday May 7, as the drawings for the post positions took place on Wednesday, with overall Favorite Dialed In drawing the eighth position.

Dialed In has been set as the favorite to win the 137th edition of the Run for the Roses on 2011 Kentucky Derby Betting Lines at Bodog Sportsbook, going off at 4/1. He leads the 20-horse field for the $2 million purse just ahead of Uncle Mo, set at 5/1.

Uncle Mo was the favorite for the majority of 2011 prior to a poor performance in New York last month. Still, he remains as one of the top favorites to win the first leg of the Triple Crown. He draws the No.18 post position on the outside.

History favors Dialed In over Uncle Mo purely based on posting positions. 10 times a Kentucky Derby Winner has come from the No.8 post, with the most recent winner Mine That Bird back in 2009. Just once has a horse won from the No.18 post since 1900. That occurred in 1982.

“I think he ought to be able to relax and track the main speed,” said trainer Todd Pletcher. “He’s doing well.”

When informed of the No.18 post position, Pletcher seemed content, “I was okay with that,” he said.

The slated time for the race to begin at Churchill Downs is 6:24 pm Et, with NBC holding coverage beginning at 4 pm Et with the latest updates and information.




mALX's Comments:



2011 Kentucky Derby Post Positions-

1. Archarcharch - a family affair, bad luck #1 post position
2. Brilliant Speed - replacing hopeful Fla Derby winner that broke down, likes the grass (Derby is on dirt)
3. Twice the Appeal - Calvin Borel up, great longshot bet at 20-1
4. Stay Thirsty - 20-1 longshot
5. Decisive Moment - jockey is 52 YO that never rode in the Derby
6. Comma to the Top - second by a neck in the Santa Anita Derby - gelding
7. Pants On Fire - female jockey - will break the male dominated record for the KD if wins.
8. Dialed In - Nick Zito trainer
9. Derby Kitten - duel entry with Twinspired - rookie
10. Twinspired - duel entry with Twinspired - rookie
11. Master of Hounds - never run on dirt, 1 win in 7 starts
12. Santiva - duel entry, green around the gills
13. Mucho Macho Man - sentimental favorite, trainer Kathy Ritvo had heart transplant in 2008
14. Shackleford - second by a head in the Fla Derby
15. Midnight Interlude - just nailed the Santa Anita Derby as a longshot, Bob Baffert trainer
16. Animal Kingdom - 30-1 longshot
17. Soldat - can't come from behind
18. Uncle Mo - backed off the lead (to show) in the Wood Memorial, Unlucky #18 post position
19. Nehro - hot horse? Owner Ahmad Zayat hopes so
20. Watch Me Go - Female trainer - will break the male dominated record for the KD if wins.



Anyone want to post their picks for the Derby here?


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This post has been edited by mALX: May 6 2011, 09:58 PM

[mALX]

I always pick two decent longshots to bet and box them (seperately, of course) with my serious choices (just in case bets), lol.

I considered Pants On Fire as one of these, and still may do it. (love the name, lol). My hesitation is this: Class. The Louisiana Derby was impressive, but this horse has never run with the class of horses it will meet in the Derby. The win before that was the Fairgrounds - it may be out of its league in the Derby. Still, it has a stab at being the longshot.

Got to agree with you about Calvin Borel. I hate to bet against him in a race, he has dominated three of the last four Derbies. He knows this course now (Churchill Downs). At 20-1 it will make a good longshot bet, but my guess is those odds will drop because others will do the same.

Not including a Baffert bet is always a mistake, especially in the Derby. He knows this course well, and trains just for the Derby. I've got my eye on Midnight Interlude.

I agree with you on Uncle Mo, when he backed off the lead in a driving finish - that turned me off betting on him even when he was still being held as the favorite. I would not have bet on him had he not been scratched.

Brilliant Speed has shown none except once on the grass. The owners immediately pressed him into the Derby from that one win, despite the fact that he won't run on dirt.

Comma To The Top - a surprising gelding. Can't count this one out of the running (like you can so many others in the field).

Shackleford - Might wheel this one as a hedge bet. The Irish Connection, lol. You are right about the jockey too, but the Churchill Downs course is tough on newcomers to it. He may surprise, and this horse and rider would be unstoppable on most courses.

Master of the Hounds - the other Irish Connection ... that one could be a dark horse. If I count him out it is because of the rookie status on this track.

Nehro - Ahmad Zayat has some great bloodlines in his stock. He has been suffering a lot of setbacks this year (or has a tremendous amount of excuses, one) and is hopeful this horse will change that. If I'm not mistaken he just purchased this horse in a last ditch effort to change his luck. Will it? I haven't seen the morning line on this one yet.


** EDIT: John Velazquez was left without a mount when Uncle Mo scratched, he has been snatched up at the last minute to ride Animal Kingdom, replacing the absentee Robby Albarado. Velazquez doesn't have time to accustom himself to the mount, nor Animal Kingdom to accustom himself to Velazquez. Don't see it happening for this horse this Derby, may as well change shoes in the paddock to seal his fate.

This post has been edited by mALX: May 6 2011, 11:58 PM