Kentucky Derby, mALX's Morning Line Options

[mALX]

The 2011 Kentucky Derby gets underway this Saturday May 7, as the drawings for the post positions took place on Wednesday, with overall Favorite Dialed In drawing the eighth position.

Dialed In has been set as the favorite to win the 137th edition of the Run for the Roses on 2011 Kentucky Derby Betting Lines at Bodog Sportsbook, going off at 4/1. He leads the 20-horse field for the $2 million purse just ahead of Uncle Mo, set at 5/1.

Uncle Mo was the favorite for the majority of 2011 prior to a poor performance in New York last month. Still, he remains as one of the top favorites to win the first leg of the Triple Crown. He draws the No.18 post position on the outside.

History favors Dialed In over Uncle Mo purely based on posting positions. 10 times a Kentucky Derby Winner has come from the No.8 post, with the most recent winner Mine That Bird back in 2009. Just once has a horse won from the No.18 post since 1900. That occurred in 1982.

“I think he ought to be able to relax and track the main speed,” said trainer Todd Pletcher. “He’s doing well.”

When informed of the No.18 post position, Pletcher seemed content, “I was okay with that,” he said.

The slated time for the race to begin at Churchill Downs is 6:24 pm Et, with NBC holding coverage beginning at 4 pm Et with the latest updates and information.




mALX's Comments:



2011 Kentucky Derby Post Positions-

1. Archarcharch - a family affair, bad luck #1 post position
2. Brilliant Speed - replacing hopeful Fla Derby winner that broke down, likes the grass (Derby is on dirt)
3. Twice the Appeal - Calvin Borel up, great longshot bet at 20-1
4. Stay Thirsty - 20-1 longshot
5. Decisive Moment - jockey is 52 YO that never rode in the Derby
6. Comma to the Top - second by a neck in the Santa Anita Derby - gelding
7. Pants On Fire - female jockey - will break the male dominated record for the KD if wins.
8. Dialed In - Nick Zito trainer
9. Derby Kitten - duel entry with Twinspired - rookie
10. Twinspired - duel entry with Twinspired - rookie
11. Master of Hounds - never run on dirt, 1 win in 7 starts
12. Santiva - duel entry, green around the gills
13. Mucho Macho Man - sentimental favorite, trainer Kathy Ritvo had heart transplant in 2008
14. Shackleford - second by a head in the Fla Derby
15. Midnight Interlude - just nailed the Santa Anita Derby as a longshot, Bob Baffert trainer
16. Animal Kingdom - 30-1 longshot
17. Soldat - can't come from behind
18. Uncle Mo - backed off the lead (to show) in the Wood Memorial, Unlucky #18 post position
19. Nehro - hot horse? Owner Ahmad Zayat hopes so
20. Watch Me Go - Female trainer - will break the male dominated record for the KD if wins.



Anyone want to post their picks for the Derby here?


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This post has been edited by mALX: May 6 2011, 09:58 PM

[Destri Melarg]

Destri’s uneducated comments:

1. Archarcharch – Running out of the #1 post. Done before the race even begins.
2. Brilliant Speed – Unfortunately doesn’t have it.
3. Twice the Appeal – 20-1 was a gift and a nod to the expertise of Calvin Borel.
4. Stay Thirsty – Maybe the least interesting horse in the race. No Dos Equis for this nag.
5. Decisive Moment – Not so much. Here just to fill out the field.
6. Comma to the Top – Won two races late last year. Patrick Valenzuela is an experienced jockey.
7. Pants on Fire – At 20-1 the one long shot that I would pick. Won the Louisiana Derby in March.
8. Dialed In – If so, the other horses don’t stand a chance. Could still win if not.
9. Derby Kitten – Will run like one.
10. Twinspired – Uninspired.
11. Master of Hounds – A dog! Sorry, couldn't resist.
12. Santiva – Great name! Too bad he runs like his name should be ‘After You.’
13. Mucho Macho Man – Decent horse. Finished third in the race that Pants on Fire won.
14. Shackleford – Jesus Castonon is one of the best jockeys that people don’t know, and he's on a good horse.
15. Midnight Interlude – Baffert has an interesting horse this year. Shocked everyone at Santa Anita. Could do the same at Churchill Downs.
16. Animal Kingdom – Doesn’t have the legs.
17. Soldat – mALX called this one.
18. Uncle Mo – A horse that pulls off the lead has something wrong with it. No surprise that Uncle Mo is a late scratch.
19. Nehro – A legit contender. Has the speed to make a late charge.
20. Watch Me Go – Where, sixth? That’s where the horse finished in its last start.


With Uncle Mo out of the race things seem to be setting up for a Nick Zito/Dialed In win. Of the long shots I think that Pants on Fire has a chance to do something (especially running next to Dialed In). As hard as it might be for me to bet against Calvin Borel, I just don’t think he has the horse to win yet another Derby (but then again, I thought that Mine that Bird was a nag too). The unfortunately named Master of Hounds just continues Garret Gomez’s streak of never finding that right horse. On the subject of names, Santiva just sounds like a racehorse to me. Unfortunately that is where the similarity ends considering that the horse limped to a ninth place finish at the Toyota Blue Grass last month. Shackleford and Midnight Interlude are positioned well at 14 & 15, both have good experienced jockeys (although Castonon aboard Shackleford is making his Derby debut), and both could move to the front early and cause trouble. Nehro is hot and has the speed to stay with Dialed In. Could make for an epic finish if the two horses are locked nose to nose at the turn for home.

This post has been edited by Destri Melarg: May 6 2011, 08:46 PM

[mALX]

I always pick two decent longshots to bet and box them (seperately, of course) with my serious choices (just in case bets), lol.

I considered Pants On Fire as one of these, and still may do it. (love the name, lol). My hesitation is this: Class. The Louisiana Derby was impressive, but this horse has never run with the class of horses it will meet in the Derby. The win before that was the Fairgrounds - it may be out of its league in the Derby. Still, it has a stab at being the longshot.

Got to agree with you about Calvin Borel. I hate to bet against him in a race, he has dominated three of the last four Derbies. He knows this course now (Churchill Downs). At 20-1 it will make a good longshot bet, but my guess is those odds will drop because others will do the same.

Not including a Baffert bet is always a mistake, especially in the Derby. He knows this course well, and trains just for the Derby. I've got my eye on Midnight Interlude.

I agree with you on Uncle Mo, when he backed off the lead in a driving finish - that turned me off betting on him even when he was still being held as the favorite. I would not have bet on him had he not been scratched.

Brilliant Speed has shown none except once on the grass. The owners immediately pressed him into the Derby from that one win, despite the fact that he won't run on dirt.

Comma To The Top - a surprising gelding. Can't count this one out of the running (like you can so many others in the field).

Shackleford - Might wheel this one as a hedge bet. The Irish Connection, lol. You are right about the jockey too, but the Churchill Downs course is tough on newcomers to it. He may surprise, and this horse and rider would be unstoppable on most courses.

Master of the Hounds - the other Irish Connection ... that one could be a dark horse. If I count him out it is because of the rookie status on this track.

Nehro - Ahmad Zayat has some great bloodlines in his stock. He has been suffering a lot of setbacks this year (or has a tremendous amount of excuses, one) and is hopeful this horse will change that. If I'm not mistaken he just purchased this horse in a last ditch effort to change his luck. Will it? I haven't seen the morning line on this one yet.


** EDIT: John Velazquez was left without a mount when Uncle Mo scratched, he has been snatched up at the last minute to ride Animal Kingdom, replacing the absentee Robby Albarado. Velazquez doesn't have time to accustom himself to the mount, nor Animal Kingdom to accustom himself to Velazquez. Don't see it happening for this horse this Derby, may as well change shoes in the paddock to seal his fate.

This post has been edited by mALX: May 6 2011, 11:58 PM

[Destri Melarg]

I considered Pants On Fire as one of these, and still may do it. (love the name, lol). My hesitation is this: Class. The Louisiana Derby was impressive, but this horse has never run with the class of horses it will meet in the Derby. The win before that was the Fairgrounds - it may be out of its league in the Derby. Still, it has a stab at being the longshot.

I agree that 10 of the 13 horses in that race were nothing to brag about, but Pants on Fire beat both Nehro and Mucho Macho Man that day. That has to count for something.

Not including a Baffert bet is always a mistake, especially in the Derby. He knows this course well, and trains just for the Derby. I've got my eye on Midnight Interlude.

Baffert does seem due doesn't he? Where the hell did Midnight Interlude come from anyway?

I agree with you on Uncle Mo, when he backed off the lead in a driving finish - that turned me off betting on him even when he was still being held as the favorite. I would not have bet on him had he not been scratched.

It's sad. A stomachache??!! Really??!! Horse-up and get out there!!! Seriously, I really wanted to see how Uncle Moe matched up against Dialed In.

Shackleford - Might wheel this one as a hedge bet. The Irish Connection, lol. You are right about the jockey too, but the Churchill Downs course is tough on newcomers to it. He may surprise, and this horse and rider would be unstoppable on most courses.

Shackleford is definitely my hedge bet!

Nehro - Ahmad Zayat has some great bloodlines in his stock. He has been suffering a lot of setbacks this year (or has a tremendous amount of excuses, one) and is hopeful this horse will change that. If I'm not mistaken he just purchased this horse in a last ditch effort to change his luck. Will it? I haven't seen the morning line on this one yet.

The last line I saw had Nehro at 6-1. All the more reason to bet on Pants on Fire.

** EDIT: John Velazquez was left without a mount when Uncle Mo scratched, he has been snatched up at the last minute to ride Animal Kingdom, replacing the absentee Robby Albarado. Velazquez doesn't have time to accustom himself to the mount, nor Animal Kingdom to accustom himself to Velazquez. Don't see it happening for this horse this Derby, may as well change shoes in the paddock to seal his fate.

This post has been edited by Destri Melarg: May 7 2011, 01:34 AM

[mALX]

I agree with you on Uncle Mo, when he backed off the lead in a driving finish - that turned me off betting on him even when he was still being held as the favorite. I would not have bet on him had he not been scratched.

Midnight Interlude won the Santa Anita running right up the middle of the track, beating Comma To The Top (who was on the rail) - even after being bumped in the head of the stretch by Comma. The horse has guts and determination.

Like a lot of distance horses he takes a while to warm up and comes from behind (that is with or without the jockey's urging, Baffert tried to bring him to the front sooner and MI acted like he didn't have it, then BAM) MI's dam was the same way, distance runner that had gears she never used because the race always ended before she got to pull out all stops.


This post has been edited by mALX: May 7 2011, 03:46 AM

[mALX]

Shackleford's trainer told the jockey to lay back about 4th and make the move in the stretch. Did the jockey listen? Hell no! He took the lead and tried to keep it in a 1 1/4 mile race !! Did he think he knew more than the trainer? GAAAAH !!!

The big surprise was Animal Kingdom, in spite of all he had happen this past week he pulled it off in the stretch in an awesome run !! John Velazquez picked up this mount yesterday and won his first Derby on it !! Now that is fate if I ever saw it !!

Ahmad Zayat should be very happy with his second place, Nehro ran very well. Mucho Macho Man (the sentimental favorite) came in third, Shackleford 4th.

[Destri Melarg]

16. Animal Kingdom – Doesn’t have the legs.

Once again we are provided with clear proof that Destri has no business handicapping horses! But at least I know I'm not alone:

** EDIT: John Velazquez was left without a mount when Uncle Mo scratched, he has been snatched up at the last minute to ride Animal Kingdom, replacing the absentee Robby Albarado. Velazquez doesn't have time to accustom himself to the mount, nor Animal Kingdom to accustom himself to Velazquez. Don't see it happening for this horse this Derby, may as well change shoes in the paddock to seal his fate.

Congrats to Animal Kingdom for a spectacular Derby win!

[mALX]

16. Animal Kingdom – Doesn’t have the legs.

Once again we are provided with clear proof that Destri has no business handicapping horses! But at least I know I'm not alone:

** EDIT: John Velazquez was left without a mount when Uncle Mo scratched, he has been snatched up at the last minute to ride Animal Kingdom, replacing the absentee Robby Albarado. Velazquez doesn't have time to accustom himself to the mount, nor Animal Kingdom to accustom himself to Velazquez. Don't see it happening for this horse this Derby, may as well change shoes in the paddock to seal his fate.

Congrats to Animal Kingdom for a spectacular Derby win!

Yeah, won by like 2 lengths too. Maybe if they had changed shoes in the paddock he would have won by 4 lengths !!! ROFL !!!