I considered Pants On Fire as one of these, and still may do it. (love the name, lol). My hesitation is this: Class. The Louisiana Derby was impressive, but this horse has never run with the class of horses it will meet in the Derby. The win before that was the Fairgrounds - it may be out of its league in the Derby. Still, it has a stab at being the longshot.
I agree that 10 of the 13 horses in that race were nothing to brag about, but Pants on Fire beat both Nehro and Mucho Macho Man that day. That has to count for something.
Not including a Baffert bet is always a mistake, especially in the Derby. He knows this course well, and trains just for the Derby. I've got my eye on Midnight Interlude.
Baffert does seem due doesn't he? Where the hell did Midnight Interlude come from anyway?
I agree with you on Uncle Mo, when he backed off the lead in a driving finish - that turned me off betting on him even when he was still being held as the favorite. I would not have bet on him had he not been scratched.
It's sad. A stomachache??!! Really??!! Horse-up and get out there!!!
Seriously, I really wanted to see how Uncle Moe matched up against Dialed In.
Shackleford - Might wheel this one as a hedge bet. The Irish Connection, lol. You are right about the jockey too, but the Churchill Downs course is tough on newcomers to it. He may surprise, and this horse and rider would be unstoppable on most courses.
Shackleford is definitely my hedge bet!
Nehro - Ahmad Zayat has some great bloodlines in his stock. He has been suffering a lot of setbacks this year (or has a tremendous amount of excuses, one) and is hopeful this horse will change that. If I'm not mistaken he just purchased this horse in a last ditch effort to change his luck. Will it? I haven't seen the morning line on this one yet.
The last line I saw had Nehro at 6-1. All the more reason to bet on Pants on Fire.
** EDIT: John Velazquez was left without a mount when Uncle Mo scratched, he has been snatched up at the last minute to ride Animal Kingdom, replacing the absentee Robby Albarado. Velazquez doesn't have time to accustom himself to the mount, nor Animal Kingdom to accustom himself to Velazquez. Don't see it happening for this horse this Derby, may as well change shoes in the paddock to seal his fate. This post has been edited by Destri Melarg: May 7 2011, 01:34 AM