My personal betting is probably going to be vampires, seeing as Werewolves already have the Companions questlines and the primary focus of both Oblivion and the Shivering Isles was on Daedra. On the other hand, the name 'Dawnguard' does have links to Azura, and seeing as there was some interest stirred up when Skyrim wsa first released on the fact that Morrowind was featured on the world map model, I'd be willing to bet that we may well get a return to Vvardenfel. Plus with the crossbows (Morrowind weapon, of course) I'd say that that would be plausible.
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